# AI-using small businesses expect faster growth, says NY Fed survey. What to make of it *By Intelligent Solutions LLC · 2026-10-14 · Strategy* Canonical URL: https://blog.intelsol.io/ny-fed-survey-small-business-ai-growth-expectations Small businesses that use AI expect their revenue to grow faster than those that don't. That is the headline from a new [Federal Reserve Bank of New York analysis](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/10/ai-adoption-and-employment-expectations-evidence-from-a-survey-of-small-business-owners/) published October 8, 2026. The details matter more than the headline, though, because they show where AI helps a small team and where the evidence is still thin. ## What the New York Fed found The authors, Will Aarons and Asani Sarkar, used the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey, fielded September to November 2025. The AI section covered 5,248 U.S. employer firms, meaning businesses with at least one employee. - **Adoption:** 46% of employer firms said their business or employees use AI tools, and another 15% planned to start within twelve months. - **Importance:** Among users, 63% said AI was somewhat or very important to production, and 51% had partially or fully built it into business processes. - **Labor costs:** 77% of respondents reported no change in labor costs from AI use. - **Sales:** Only 31% of respondents reported increased sales from AI use. That last pair of numbers is worth sitting with. Most respondents saw no change in labor costs, and only 31% reported higher sales. ## AI users are more optimistic, but this measures expectations The Fed used a "net" index: the share of firms expecting an increase minus the share expecting a decrease. Before adjustments, AI users scored +48 for revenue versus +21 for non-users. For employment, it was +33 versus +15. After controlling for firm and owner characteristics and prior-year changes, the gap narrowed but stayed positive: about 14 points for revenue and 10 points for employment. The authors are careful to say these are expectations, not outcomes. Whether AI adopters actually realize better results "is a subject for future research." ## The biggest gap is among firms under pressure The revenue gap was 24 points for owners who rated their finances "fair or poor," compared with 15 points for those in good condition. AI users who reported technology-related operational challenges, such as problems with websites, social media, e-commerce or cybersecurity, had a net revenue expectation 16 points higher than those without such challenges. The authors read this as a sign that AI may help firms get past specific operational barriers. That is an interpretation, not a proven effect, but it fits what we see in practice: the teams that gain most are usually the ones stretched thin on admin work. ## Deeper integration was not what separated the optimists The Fed also found that, after controls, firms that had integrated AI into their processes were about as likely to expect higher employment as those that had not. A survey like this cannot tell you whether deeper integration pays off, only that optimism was not limited to heavy users. ## What this means if you run your business on Salesforce First, treat the survey as a reason to try AI on a narrow problem, not as proof it will lift revenue. Pick one outcome, such as faster lead response or cleaner follow-ups, and measure it. Practitioners quoted by [Salesforce Ben](https://www.salesforceben.com/is-agentforce-finally-affordable-for-smbs-in-2026/) make the same point: implementation is simple for small businesses only when the scope is clear. Second, the entry cost is lower than it was. As of that May 2026 report, Agentforce capabilities were available in the Free, Starter and Pro Suites editions of Salesforce. Check your edition before you budget for anything new, and confirm current pricing with Salesforce, since pricing for newer components has been changing. Third, expect the benefit to depend on data quality and setup, which the Fed survey did not measure. Agents that draft follow-ups or summarize deals only help if your CRM records are accurate and your team actually uses them. ## The bottom line AI use is now common among small employers, and users are more upbeat about growth. But most respondents report no change in labor costs, and only 31% report higher sales. Start small, pick a measurable goal, and review results after 60 to 90 days. Not sure where AI fits in your Salesforce setup? [Book a free audit](#) and we will point to the one or two places it is most likely to pay off for your team. ## Sources - [AI Adoption and Employment Expectations: Evidence from a Survey of Small Business Owners, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/10/ai-adoption-and-employment-expectations-evidence-from-a-survey-of-small-business-owners/) - [Is Agentforce Finally Affordable for SMBs in 2026?, Salesforce Ben](https://www.salesforceben.com/is-agentforce-finally-affordable-for-smbs-in-2026/)